SIOP for economic conflict

A SIOP for economic conflict is a 2023 proposal by George Gilboy and Eric Heginbotham for advance, integrated planning of United States economic measures in a possible conflict with China. The authors use the Cold War nuclear Single Integrated Operational Plan as an analogy for coordinating sanctions, export controls, investment restrictions and allied action. It is a policy proposal, not an adopted United States doctrine or operational plan.

Proposal and evidence

The proposal followed an MIT simulation of economic conflict over Taiwan. The exercise involved economists, former policymakers and business leaders, with United States government representatives observing. Its public account reports rapid escalation across sectors, costs to both economies and coordination problems. Observation by officials does not establish government sponsorship, endorsement or adoption.

Gilboy and Heginbotham argue that advance target analysis, escalation options, allied consultation and modelling of second-order effects would reduce improvisation in a crisis. This places the proposal within Economic coercion doctrine (the doctrinal gap) and Interagency synchronisation. It also overlaps with Allied financial targeting coordination, because measures against a deeply integrated economy depend on coalition coverage and burden-sharing.

The analogy has limits. Economic conflict is iterative, market-mediated and vulnerable to substitution. A fixed plan could become obsolete, reveal dependencies or narrow political choice. Deterrence also requires some signalling, while operational effectiveness may require secrecy. The proposal therefore supplies a planning framework and a contested analogy, not evidence that integrated economic-war planning necessarily produces Economic deterrence. Its value should be tested against adaptability, lawful authority, allied consent and the ability to revise options as markets and political objectives change.

Sources

1. MIT Security Studies Program, Heginbotham: America Needs a Single Integrated Operational Plan for Economic Conflict with China (2023).
2. United States Department of the Treasury, *The Treasury 2021 Sanctions Review* (2021).
3. United States Department of the Treasury, Treasury Releases 2021 Sanctions Review (18 October 2021).